The global currency-trading business expanded at a double-digit rate in the six months ended in April, data from key monetary authorities around the world showed Monday.
The strong growth puts the foreign-exchange market on track to top a record $4 trillion in daily trading volume, extending its recovery after the global recession caused activity to dry up in the first part of 2009.
Worries over the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis and concern over the pace of the global economic recovery are likely to keep volatility—the main driver behind the currency market’s trading rebound—high.
At the same time, the increase in Australian trade volume is a reminder of a deeper underlying shift as investors and companies move their exposure from the advanced economies of Europe and the U.S. toward Asia and emerging markets.
Still, that is a longer-term trend. In the latest half-year, “no question, front and center was the euro,” said Jeff Feig, managing director and global head of Group of 10 foreign exchange at Citigroup and the chairman of the Foreign Exchange Committee sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “The volume growth was really a result of the volatility and the fact that you had real end users actively hedging their exposures.”
Worries over the euro zone’s debt crisis prompted corporations and other investors to shield themselves from sharp swings in the common currency by turning to the perceived safety of the dollar, yen and Swiss franc.
Currency trading flows in the U.K., the world’s biggest dealing hub, rose 15%, bringing the daily average to $1.747 trillion, data released by the Bank of England showed Monday.
In the U.S., daily currency flows rose 12% to $754 billion, just shy of the record $762 billion in October 2008. The total includes spot transactions as well as currency derivatives.
London grabs roughly one-third of global currency-trading flows, with New York taking around one-fifth. Other trading hubs around the world account for the remainder. Central banks and other monetary authorities in each of the major trading center compile trading volume statistics on an annual, or semiannual basis.
Daily trading volume in Australia soared 54% in April from a year earlier, taking the total to $191.2 billion as the Australian dollar, with its commodities-related exposure to China, was traded as a proxy for the Chinese yuan, analysts said. Japanese flows rose 16% to $294.1 billion
The world-wide daily foreign-exchange market should now stand at more than $4.1 trillion, according to an HSBC report. That is a 28% jump from the $3.2 trillion figure established in 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements in its latest survey. The BIS is to update the official figure this year.
Still, the pace of growth is slower than the previous three-year period, when volume rose 63%.
Late Monday in New York, the euro was at $1.2994, from $1.2916 late Friday; the euro advanced as far as $1.3006. The dollar was at 86.90 yen from 87.37 yen late Friday, while the euro was at 112.92 yen from 112.84 yen. The U.K. pound was at $1.5486 from $1.5423. The dollar was at 1.0484 Swiss francs from 1.0534 francs.